The Decline
In other words, growth and inflation slowdown are imminent, and we can expect a deep Quad IV in the second quarter of 2022, whether you like it or not.
Quad 4
We are starting to see the signs of Quad IV coming down the tracks now.
Inheritance?
As much as we would appreciate a normal distribution of stock price returns, that’s just not how the stock market game works.
PVV
The three factors are Price, Volume, and Volatility with Volatility being the most important.
Inflation
We will soon start having some headwinds as people on unemployment and getting the extra $300 per month will soon lose the $300.
Infrastructure & College Funding
We don’t see a change in the Quads coming soon so it looks like smooth sailing for a while.
More on Housing
Yet, the number of initial jobless claimants remains at 16 million or roughly ten times the 1.7 million job unemployment claimants in January 2020.
Taxation of Investments
This rapid increase in housing prices may moderate going forward.
Grocery Prices Apocalypse
The inflation issue comes down to exceedingly low inventories and increased demand due to the public “getting out of jail” with lots of money in their pockets
Jobs
The US job market added only 266,000 jobs in April, falling really far short of expectations of one million new jobs.
Personal Income Rises
Starting in Mid March and through most of April, there has been a swing from growth outperformance to value outperformance.
Incapacity
What we are now seeing is a rotation from value investing back towards growth investing.
Retail Sales
We think that the March report is the start of what will be an extraordinary year in household spending.
Your Compete Number
You may want to check how you have local numbers entered into your cell phones.
Week of April 5, 2021
“When do I think things will get back to normal or the way it used to be?”
Market News and More
That means the consumer is bullish on the future.
Relief!
I find it interesting that the Nasdaq performance is up only +2.54% year to date.
Trust Basics
We see a series of lower highs and lower lows in some of the bellwether market indicators.
Pullback & Job Growth
The one negative in investors’ eyes is that all this demand will increase inflation.
The Big Drop
But the real question is, will the rise in interest rates adversely affect the stock market?
Nothing But Green Lights Ahead!
We expect an especially strong recovery in the economy …
Stimulus
I expect FOMO (fear of missing out) to infect most investors.
Employment
Whether this is the correct move to make probably depends on your political preference.
GameStop Explained
It’s a common but controversial way of trading in financial markets.
Markets, Marriage, & More
lots of money can be made in bubbles,
Repeat of Our Outlook
… a professional can evaluate your objectives and available resources and help you consider appropriate long-term financial strategies, including your withdrawal strategy.
January 11, 2021 – 1st Quarter Outlook
1st Quarter Outlook – a must read!
This is How We Do
As a new year is beginning, I thought it would be a good time to review how we manage your money.
Covid Relief Bill
We have an interesting situation in Washington developing
Relief!
We believe the positive markets will continue for the foreseeable future.
Vaccine vs Virus
… in order for the United States to reach a full economic recovery there must also be a global recovery.
Umbrella Ready?
We are solidly in Quad II globally, which is good for stock markets around the world.
Covid Analysis
Remember, in Quadrant 3, inflation increases, so if that proves accurate, interest rates will rise, bond prices will fall.
2021 IRAs
It is hard to tell which of the two forces will control the stock market over the next few months.
Vaccine
The next few weeks hopefully will give us a window into the future.
VOTE!
An intensifying pandemic and probable lack of another round of fiscal aid this year will almost certainly dampen overall economic activity to close the year and to begin 2021.
Work & Education
.. we are merely spectators until the election is over.
Stimulus and Scams
Politics aside, the country really needs a stimulus for two reasons:
Job Losses
In September, the total number of people who have lost employment — and are not on temporary layoff — reached 4.5 million.
Strange Times
Could events get any stranger?
